The average dollar in US spot bitcoin ETFs is under water, our flow data shows
We estimate net new money went in near $74,900 a coin, leaving GBTC aside. Bitcoin now trades about 13% below that.
Money that flowed into US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January 2024 is now worth less than it cost, on average. By our estimate, net new money bought bitcoin at about $74,900 a coin, leaving aside Grayscale's GBTC. At Bitstamp's price of $65,443 at 7:27 a.m. ET on November 15, bitcoin trades 12.7% below that.
Counting GBTC, the average rises to about $84,700, and the price sits 22.7% below it. GBTC distorts that figure, for reasons explained below. Either way, the average dollar that went into these funds is showing a loss. At Sunday's low of $61,947 on Bitstamp, the price was about 17% below our $74,900 estimate.
How we worked it out
Our ETF flows page holds every trading day's net flow for each US spot fund since launch on January 11, 2024. It comes from TFTC's open tracker, which uses Farside and SoSoValue data. Each day also carries a bitcoin price, a mempool.space mark taken around 9 p.m. UTC.
For each of the 714 trading days through November 13, we divided the day's net flow by that day's price. That estimates how much bitcoin the funds bought or sold. Adding up the dollars and the coins, then dividing one by the other, gives an average entry price for the money still in.
Outflow days count at that day's price, so selling at a loss pulls the average up and selling at a profit pulls it down. The method ignores fees and the exact prices funds paid during the day.
Why GBTC is left out
GBTC was a trust holding bitcoin for years before it became an ETF. Since it converted, investors have pulled a net $28.1 billion out of it, by our data. Many of its holders likely bought in before it became an ETF, at prices our data can't see.
Our method would treat those exits as sales of coins bought at ETF-era prices, which pushes the all-fund average up. So we chose to leave GBTC out to get a cleaner picture of fresh money. Some of the money we count as fresh likely came from investors switching out of GBTC into cheaper funds, which our data cannot separate.
What the numbers show
- Without GBTC, the funds took in a net $82.8 billion, which bought an estimated 1.1 million bitcoin. That is our estimate of coins bought, not the funds' reported holdings. At 7:27 a.m. ET those coins were worth about $72.3 billion.
- Measured in net coins, about 64% were added on days when bitcoin cost more than it does now.
- Counting only inflow days, without GBTC, money went in at an average of about $77,300.
- The average has barely moved this year. It was about $74,000 at the end of 2025 and $74,900 at the end of October 2026.
Net outflows since the peak have been small. Bitcoin hit its record high on Bitstamp on October 6, 2025. From then to November 13, the funds without GBTC had net outflows of about $1.3 billion. That is about 31,000 coins by our estimate, under 3% of what they bought.
November has been heavier. Counting all funds, GBTC included, net outflows reached about $2.35 billion in the month's first 10 trading days. That is roughly 31,500 coins at each day's price.
What the average can't tell you
An average hides a wide spread. Many 2024 buyers paid less than today's price. At the end of 2024, our average for funds other than GBTC stood near $63,700. People who bought in 2025 near the top are much further behind.
The figure also says nothing about how any one investor will act. Some holders may be advisers rebalancing client accounts. Others may be traders hedged with futures, for whom a falling price matters less.
A fund's cost basis is the average price its investors paid. Whether it acts as a price floor, or pushes holders under water to sell, is disputed. Our data cannot settle that, and past flows do not predict future ones.
What to watch
- Daily flows on our ETF flows page, which updates each morning.
- Whether outflows stay concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, which lost a net $2.1 billion in November through November 13, by TFTC's figures.
- The gap between bitcoin's price and the $74,900 estimate. We will rerun the calculation as new flows arrive.
Our earlier pieces on bitcoin's fall from its peak and its slide below $70,000 cover the price side of this market.
Analysis by Orange Wire. It explains the data and is not financial advice.
Spot ETFs are now one of the main ways people own bitcoin. Knowing roughly what their money paid helps explain the mood when prices fall, since many fund holders are looking at losses. It also shows that most of the money has stayed in so far, which a headline about outflows can miss.
Not financial advice. How we report and check stories.
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