Bitcoin power law, live
Where bitcoin sits against its long-run power-law trend today: the trend line, the floor and each cycle's high and low. Updated daily; today's reading uses the live price.
- Since 2010 bitcoin's price has tracked a straight line on log-log axes. Our fit explains 96% of the long-run variation.
- At the Nov 14, 2026 close, bitcoin traded at 0.45× that line. Relative to the trend, it has been lower on 6% of days since 2010.
- The peaks above the line have shrunk every cycle. The line is a description of the past, not a promise.
Other models Bitcoiners watch
Each cycle's high and low against the line
| Period | Furthest above trend | Price | × trend | Furthest below trend | Price | × trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–12 | Jun 11, 2011 | $33.80 | 16.54× | Oct 7, 2010 | $0.060 | 0.18× |
| 2013–15 | Nov 29, 2013 | $1,132 | 10.98× | Aug 24, 2015 | $209.72 | 0.37× |
| 2016–19 | Dec 16, 2017 | $19,188 | 6.41× | May 22, 2016 | $438.80 | 0.43× |
| 2020–23 | Mar 13, 2021 | $61,165 | 3.63× | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 0.45× |
| Jul 2023 on | Dec 17, 2024 | $106,187 | 1.40× | Nov 14, 2026 | $64,114 | 0.45× |
How we calculate it
We draw the best-fitting straight line through 5,933 daily closes (Aug 18, 2010 to Nov 14, 2026), with both price and the number of days since Jan 3, 2009 on log scales (a least-squares fit). The fitted exponent is 5.60; Santostasi and Perrenod report 5.69 on data to February 2026, so our line rises a little more slowly than theirs. The trend line on a date = 10^(-16.197 + 5.598 × log10(days)). The floor is the same line multiplied by 0.374, the lowest price-to-trend ratio since 2015.
Critics disagree on what the line means. A May 2026 paper by Baquero and Menezes found it tracks price well over long periods but is not a proven law. The same data also fits a series of adoption S-curves. Move the date the clock starts from, and the fitted exponent can change by a factor of nearly three. Read the critique · News report on the 2026 Santostasi and Perrenod paper · Report on the journal publication (in French) · A 2026 review of Bitcoin price models · How the halving fits in
Daily closes: Bitstamp BTC/USD (UTC) from September 2011, and the blockchain.com price index before that (August 2010 to August 2011, approximate). Our calculations. Today's reading uses the live Coinbase price once it loads. Model figures are for Nov 14, 2026. A model, not a forecast: these lines describe the past. Nothing here says where the price will go. Not financial advice.
Common questions
What is the Bitcoin power law?
A model that fits bitcoin's price to a straight line when both price and time are drawn on logarithmic scales. In math terms, price grows with the number of days since the genesis block raised to a fixed power. Physicist Giovanni Santostasi popularized it, and Harold Christopher Burger's 2019 "power-law corridor" essay added the floor and ceiling lines. A formal version by Santostasi and Stephen Perrenod appeared in the journal Nonlinear Science in June 2026, according to news reports.
What is the power law "fair value" today?
Power-law followers call the trend line "fair value". Ours is about $143,132 for Nov 14, 2026, from our own fit to every daily close since Aug 18, 2010 (exponent 5.60; the line explains 96% of the long-run variation). Bitcoin closed at $64,114, or 0.45× the trend line. Other trackers use other fits, so their numbers differ. It is a trend, not a price target.
What is the power law floor?
It is the trend line moved down until it touches bitcoin's lowest price relative to the trend since 2015 (Aug 24, 2015). Today it is about $53,522. Bitcoin has not closed below it since then; that is history, not a guarantee.
Is the power law a price prediction?
No. It describes how price has behaved since 2010. A May 2026 critique found it predicted prices 12 to 24 months ahead better than simple benchmarks, but that it is not a proven law of nature. Swings around the line have been large: since 2013, from about a third of the line to 11 times it.
How far has price swung around the line?
At its furthest above the line, bitcoin traded at 10.98× it in 2013, 6.41× in 2017, 3.63× in 2021 and at most 1.40× since mid-2023. Each cycle has peaked lower relative to the trend than the one before.
The week in Bitcoin, in one email
Top five stories, one chart, one explainer. No altcoins, no hype.