Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator
The two-average signal that came near the 2013, 2017 and April 2021 tops, and missed the November 2021 and 2025 peaks.
Its record
Signals in our data: Apr 5, 2013 ($142), Dec 5, 2013 ($1,024), Dec 16, 2017 ($19,188) and Apr 12, 2021 ($59,832). It did not fire in 2025. Like every model here, it fits past cycles; it cannot tell you what the next one will do.
Daily closes: Bitstamp BTC/USD (UTC) from September 2011, and the blockchain.com price index before that (August 2010 to August 2011, approximate). Our calculations. Today's reading uses the live Coinbase price once it loads. Model figures are for Nov 14, 2026. A model, not a forecast: these lines describe the past. Nothing here says where the price will go. Not financial advice.
Common questions
What is the Pi Cycle Top indicator?
It compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the shorter one crosses above the longer, that is the signal. In the past, that crossing has come close to a cycle top. Philip Swift published it in 2019; 350 divided by 111 is close to pi, hence the name.
Is the Pi Cycle Top signaling now?
No. On Nov 14, 2026 the 111-day average was $76,349, 49% below the trigger line at $150,787.
When has it fired before?
In our daily data the 111-day average crossed above the line on Apr 5, 2013 ($142), Dec 5, 2013 ($1,024), Dec 16, 2017 ($19,188) and Apr 12, 2021 ($59,832). It did not fire in the 2025 cycle, when bitcoin reached an intraday high of about $126,000 on Oct 6, 2025.
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