Bitcoin's slide below $70,000 is a slow grind, our volatility data shows
Bitcoin fell 15% in nine days, yet its daily swings are among the calmest on record. Here is what's driving it and what traders say comes next.
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 overnight for the first time since August. It traded near $68,460 on Bitstamp at about 05:30 UTC on November 13. That is about 15% below its daily close of $80,434 on November 4, nine days earlier.
The mood has soured. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index from alternative.me dropped to 20, which it labels "Extreme Fear." Yet by our own measure, bitcoin's price swings this year are among the calmest in its history.
How volatile is bitcoin right now?
We measured volatility from Bitstamp's daily closes. Volatility here is the spread of daily price changes over 30 days, scaled to a yearly figure.
Over the 30 days to November 12, that figure was about 36%. A typical day moved the price by about 1.9%. Averaged over every day of 2026, the 30-day figure was about 41%.
That puts 2026 alongside 2023 and 2025, which also averaged about 41%, as bitcoin's calmest years on record. In 2021 the average was 78%, and in 2017 it was 83%. Bitcoin has closed up or down 5% or more on 15 days so far in 2026, against 74 days in 2021.
What stands out is the length of the fall. Bitcoin's weekly close has dropped five weeks in a row, through the week ending November 8. Since that Sunday close of $74,743, it is down another 8%.
What is driving the slide
- Nvidia. Bitcoin fell after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned on November 12, The Block reported. 24/7 Wall St. linked part of bitcoin's decline to his exit.
- Rates and the dollar. Markets now price in a Federal Reserve rate hike in December after hotter October inflation data, Investing.com reported, citing CME FedWatch. The US Dollar Index rose above 103, its highest since April 2025, CoinDesk reported.
- Fund selling. On November 11, investors pulled about $300 million from US spot bitcoin ETFs. These exchange-traded funds own bitcoin directly and trade like shares. It was a fifth straight day of outflows, according to Crypto.com and TradingKey.
- Strategy and MSCI. Strategy is the public company that holds the most bitcoin. Index funds that track MSCI, an index provider, may have to sell Strategy shares when MSCI drops it on November 30. That worry also weighed on prices, The Block reported.
- Forced selling. More than $1.3 billion of crypto bets made with borrowed money were forcibly closed in 24 hours, CoinDesk reported, citing CoinGlass data.
Bear market, or a pause in a bull market?
A common market rule of thumb calls a 20% fall from a peak a bear market. By our data, bitcoin passed that line a year ago. Measured on daily closes, its record was $124,728 on October 6, 2025. It first closed more than 20% below that on November 13, 2025, and it has not closed within 20% of it since.
Measured on month-end closes, as in our November 12 analysis, today's price is about 41% below the July 2025 peak of $115,750. Past cycles were down 62% to 78% at the same point after their peaks. So this downturn has been shallower so far.
Moving averages give each side something to point to. On November 12, bitcoin closed below its 200-day average for the first time since August 18. That average was about $73,082, and the 50-day average was about $80,863.
On the other side, the price is still about 19% above this year's intraday low of $57,735, set on July 1. The 50-day average also remains above the 200-day average, a pattern 21Shares described as still intact in its November outlook.
Crypto.com and 21Shares both name the 200-week average as the next major level. By our count of Bitstamp's Sunday closes, it stands near $67,750. Bitcoin's lowest daily close this year, on June 30, was about 6% below that line.
What traders say about the next few weeks
"We remain cautious on BTC as it tests $73k," Jasper De Maere of the trading firm Wintermute said in comments carried by The Block. He said he saw no convincing sign of large buyers stepping in at those prices.
In its November outlook, published on November 3, the asset manager 21Shares named $73,000 as a key price level. A lasting break below it would "put the bears back in control," 21Shares wrote. Holding it, 21Shares wrote, would point to a deeper pullback within a recovering trend. Bitcoin traded below it on November 13. Whether that lasts is 21Shares' test.
A Crypto.com market update called $70,000 "a round-number floor." It said that winning back about $73,700 would ease the pressure on prices. 24/7 Wall St. said bitcoin regaining its 200-day average after Nvidia's November 17 results would suggest the sell-off was mostly about Nvidia.
These are other people's views; Orange Wire makes no price prediction.
What to watch
- Friday, November 13: US producer price data for October, The Block noted, another inflation reading before the Fed's next decision.
- November 17: Nvidia's quarterly results, its first since Huang's exit, according to 24/7 Wall St.
- November 30: MSCI's removal of Strategy from its indexes takes effect.
- December 9: the Fed's next rate decision, according to Crypto.com.
- Whether bitcoin holds above its 200-week average, near $67,750.
Analysis by Orange Wire. It explains the data and is not financial advice.
A fast drop can push people to sell in a panic or buy without a plan. Our numbers show bitcoin's daily moves this year are small, but the losses have kept adding up. Knowing which levels and events traders watch helps you read the headlines without guessing.
Not financial advice. How we report and check stories.
Found this useful? Tip the desk in sats at our Lightning address, tips@orangewirebtc.com. Tips are voluntary. They buy no extra content and no influence over coverage.
Liked this? Get five stories like it every week, plus one chart and one explainer. Free. Subscribe →